Series #2: Strategy Post-AI: The Simple Mental Model Every Leader Needs
In a world drowning in AI hype, the winners will be those who think clearly, not those who move fastest.
"Q1: What can I delegate to AI today?" "Q2: Where is physical automation becoming profitable?" "Q3: What uniquely human capabilities become more valuable as AI handles everything else?"
Every day brings another AI breakthrough, another vendor pitch, another expert prediction about the future of work. The noise is deafening. The hype is exhausting. And somewhere in the chaos, you're supposed to make strategic decisions that will determine your business's future.
Here's the truth: You don't need to understand every AI development. You don't need to chase every trend. What you need is a simple mental model that cuts through the noise and keeps you focused on what actually matters.
The Noise Problem
The AI conversation has become a blur of buzzwords, breathless predictions, and vendor promises. Generative AI, large language models, autonomous systems, artificial general intelligence - it's enough to make any leader's head spin.
But here's what I've learned working with leaders across industries: The ones who thrive aren't the ones with the most AI knowledge. They're the ones with the clearest thinking about where AI fits in their business reality.
They have a simple "big picture" in their heads that helps them navigate this new world without getting lost in the weeds.
The Three-Layer Mental Model
Think of AI adoption like building a house. You don't start with the roof or the landscaping. You start with the foundation, then the structure, then the finishing touches. AI strategy works the same way.
Layer 1: The Foundation → Apps, Bots & Agents
"What can I delegate to AI today?"
This is your foundation layer - the AI tools that already exist, already work, and cost almost nothing to try. ChatGPT, Midjourney, Jasper, Notion AI. These aren't future technologies. They're here now, and they're surprisingly good at routine cognitive work.
The Big Picture: AI is like hiring a very capable intern who works 24/7 for pennies. But like any intern, they need clear instructions, oversight, and correction.
Your Mental Model: Every routine task is a candidate for AI delegation. Your job isn't to replace humans - it's to free them up for work that actually requires human judgment.
The Clarity Question: "What would happen if I could delegate 30% of my team's routine work to AI tomorrow?"
Layer 2: The Structure → Robotics & Automation
"Where is physical automation becoming profitable?"
This is your structure layer - the physical systems that will reshape entire industries, but aren't ready for widespread adoption yet. Warehouse robots, autonomous delivery, manufacturing automation.
The Big Picture: Physical automation follows a predictable pattern. It starts expensive and limited, then suddenly becomes cheap and ubiquitous. We're in the "expensive and limited" phase for most applications.
Your Mental Model: You're not building this tech - you're waiting for it to mature and become cost-effective. Your job is to watch the leaders in your industry and understand when to follow.
The Clarity Question: "What physical work in my business could be automated for less than what I pay humans to do it?"
Layer 3: The Finishing Touches → Human Edge
"What uniquely human capabilities become more valuable as AI handles everything else?"
This is your finishing layer - the uniquely human capabilities that become more valuable, not less, as AI handles routine work. Strategy, creativity, relationship-building, ethical judgment.
The Big Picture: As AI commoditizes routine cognitive work, human expertise becomes more valuable, not less. But only the right kind of human expertise.
Your Mental Model: Every hour AI saves your team is an hour they can spend on high-value work that only humans can do. The question isn't whether AI will replace humans—it's whether you'll position your humans to do irreplaceable work.
The Clarity Question: "What would my business look like if my best people spent 80% of their time on creative problem-solving instead of routine execution?"
How This Mental Model Cuts Through the Noise
When a vendor pitches you AI software: Ask yourself, "Is this Layer 1 (available now and cheap to try) or Layer 2 (promising but expensive)?" If it's Layer 1, run a small experiment. If it's Layer 2, ask for case studies and ROI data.
When you read AI predictions: Ask yourself, "Is this about improving Layer 1 tools, advancing Layer 2 automation, or changing what humans need to excel at in Layer 3?" Most predictions are noise. The ones that matter fit cleanly into your mental model.
When your team asks about AI strategy: Start with Layer 1. What routine work can we delegate to AI this month? Then move to Layer 3. What uniquely human capabilities should we develop as AI handles more routine work?
When competitors announce AI initiatives: Don't panic. Ask which layer they're focusing on. If it's Layer 1, you can catch up quickly. If it's Layer 2, evaluate whether they're betting too early. If it's Layer 3, learn from their approach to human development.
The Strategic Clarity This Creates
With this mental model, every AI development becomes easy to categorize:
Layer 1 improvements (better chatbots, smarter content generation) → Test quickly and adopt what works
Layer 2 breakthroughs (cheaper robots, better automation) → Monitor closely and plan for adoption
Layer 3 implications (what humans need to excel at) → Invest in training and development now
You stop chasing every AI trend because you understand where each innovation fits in your bigger picture. You stop feeling behind because you have a clear framework for when to act and when to wait. Most importantly, you stop getting lost in the noise because you have a simple mental model that helps you focus on what actually matters for your business.
The Bottom Line
The AI revolution isn't about who adopts the most AI tools. It's about who maintains the clearest thinking while everything around them changes. Your competitors will get distracted by the latest AI breakthrough. They'll chase trends, implement tools without strategy, and lose sight of the big picture.
You'll have something better: a simple mental model that cuts through the noise, keeps you focused on what matters, and helps you make clear decisions in an unclear world.
The future belongs to leaders who can think clearly, not those who move fastest.
What's your Layer 1 experiment this month? What Layer 3 capabilities are you developing? And most importantly - what AI noise are you choosing to ignore?